The total value of residential mortgage debt in the US will continue to experience solid growth into 2022 and 2023, according to an inaugural forecast by Insider Intelligence.
In 2022, the total value of US mortgage loan debt will grow 3.7% to $14.412 trillion. That’s nearly the same rate as in 2021, with that pace remaining steady through the end of 2023. This follows 4.7% growth in 2020, a rate not seen since before the great recession, according to the Insider Intelligence, formed in 2020 from the combination of eMarketer and Business Insider Intelligence (BII).
“Low-interest rates have fuelled a red-hot housing market that has led to an increase in existing home prices, which, in turn, have increased the amount that homebuyers are borrowing,” said Peter Newman, senior forecasting analyst at Insider Intelligence. “Even if the Fed raises rates in 2022, they would remain relatively low, and we expect mortgage transaction value to continue its pace.”
The average mortgage debt balance per account will be $177,477 in 2022, up 3.3% over 2021. This comes after robust 5.1% growth in 2020, as the pandemic fuelled new home purchases. The average will grow another 3.2% in 2023 to reach $183,128. While transaction values climb, the number of residential mortgages outstanding remains relatively flat.
