Growth in credit offtake will usher in a virtuous investment cycle
With stronger and healthier balance sheets in the banking, non-banking, and corporate sectors, a fresh credit cycle has already begun, as evidenced by the double-digit growth in bank lending in recent months. The Indian economy is poised to grow at its potential in the medium term, according to the Economic Survey 2022-23, which was presented in the Parliament on Tuesday by Union Minister for Finance and Corporate Affairs, Nirmala Sitharaman.
Tech-based Economic Reforms
The Indian economy has also started benefiting from the efficiency gains resulting from greater formalisation, higher financial inclusion, and economic opportunities created by digital technology-based economic reforms. Economic growth will be bolstered by the expansion of public digital platforms and steps to improve manufacturing production. In the coming years, the availability and spread of digital infrastructure will contribute significantly to economic growth. Digital platforms are transforming India’s financial services. India’s e-commerce market is projected to grow at 18% annually through 2025, as per the highlights of the Economic Survey.
Under Account Aggregator, the consent-based data-sharing framework is currently live across over 110 crore bank accounts. UPI-based transactions grew in value (121%) and volume (115%) terms between 2019-22, paving the way for their international adoption. Aadhaar played a vital role in developing the Co-WIN platform and in the transparent administration of over 2 billion vaccine doses. Legislations are being introduced for enhanced user privacy and to create an ecosystem for standard, open, and interoperable protocols underlining robust data governance. The increasing digital adoption during covid-19 in areas like healthcare, agriculture, FinTech, education, and skilling indicates that the digital delivery of services in India has a massive potential across economic sectors. It is usually suggested that developing countries must follow global best practices. However, how India has created and harnessed its DPI is capturing the attention of many nations globally. In sum, the synergy between physical and digital infrastructure will be one of the defining features of India’s future growth story, states the Survey.
GNPA Ratio of SCBs 7-Year Low
Cleaner balance sheets led to enhanced lending by financial institutions. The growth in credit offtake is expected to sustain, and combined with a pick-up in private capex, will usher in a virtuous investment cycle. The recovery rate for the SCBs through Insolvency and Bankruptcy (IBC) was highest in FY22 compared to other channels. Non-food credit offtake by scheduled Commercial Banks (SCBs) has been growing in double digits since April 2022. Credit disbursed by NBFCs has also been on the rise. The gross non-performing assets (GNPA) ratio of SCBs has fallen to a seven-year low of 5.0. The capital-to-risk weighted assets ratio (CRAR) remains healthy at 16.0.
The credit growth to the MSME sector was over 30.6 per cent on average during Jan-Nov 2022. The period of 2014-2022 also witnessed balance sheet stress caused by the credit boom in the previous years and one-off global shocks that adversely impacted the key macroeconomic variables such as credit growth, capital formation, and hence economic growth during this period.